As it turns out, the changes won't be that big. Basically, Guildford will lose the Ewhurst ward (Waverley Borough) to the Mole Valley Constituency and it will lose the Pilgrims Ward (Guildford Borough) to a new Woking constituency.
These are just the initial proposals of course and will now be subject to two separate consultation where changes can be made and it will also require to be approved by parliament in order to be implemented.
Nevertheless, if we assume the changes to the boundaries go ahead without any further alterations, this is what Guildford would look like:
|Am I the only one who thinks this is a very odd shape for a constituency?|
Unfortunately, the data available for the 2010 constituency result doesn't include a break down of how each ward voted so I can't give a notional result for the proposed seat. However, I can say that both of the wards which have been removed from the seat are tory voting wards and therefore these changes are likely to be to the benefit of the Liberal Democrats in Guildford. That said, Anne Milton, Guildford's current MP, will probably still have a sizeable majority given her rather depressing success in 2010. One further point I would make is that Cranleigh in the southern part of the constituency has historically shown stronger support for the tories while Guildford has shown stronger support for the Lib Dems. It might be the case that the boundary changes will make this disparity in voting trends even more apparent.
UPDATE: Despite my inability to do it, the Guardian have managed to work out notional results for constituencies. According to them, Anne Milton would have a majority of 7,472 on the new boundaries (310 votes less than at present). The Lib Dems would have 871 fewer votes and the Tories would have 1,181 less votes. So, as I said, a slight benefit to the Lib Dems. But a net gain of 310 votes is statistically insignificant in a seat where 55,567 people voted last time. Basically, it'll be business as usual for Guildford.