Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Lib Dems up to 15% in the Polls

The latest ICM poll for the Guardian has the Lib Dems on 15%, with Labour on 39% and the Conservatives on 35%. Now, obviously you can't look at polls in isolation as they are always liable to be out by plus or minus two or three percentage points but, having said that, it does form part of an underlying trend on ICM which showed a Lib Dem decline since the election and now shows what looks like the start of a gradual recovery.

In my opinion this recovery was only to be expected as the tuition fees fiasco (quite rightly) damaged our credibility. However, over the coming weeks and months we should see more Lib Dem achievements in government (for example, the counter terrorism review today has rolled back infringements on civil liberties and when the committee on the banking sector reports we should see Lib Dem policy being delivered there as well) which should help us to regain support. Another promising sign is that based on the vote share we've received so far in council elections we've got 25%. Obviously our national level of support isn't going to be anything like that but it does show that we're far from facing a wipe out at the council elections in May.

Of course, one important caveat is that, despite my personal opinion of ICM as the gold standard for polls (they were closest when it came to calling the general election, for example), they do tend to show the highest level of support for the Lib Dems out of all the reputable polling companies. However, even YouGov (which tends to give us the lowest rating) has us back in double figures for two polls in a row.

In short, if you want my opinion on the polls, I think we're seeing the start of a slow Lib Dem recovery and I'm cautiously optimistic about the polls over the next year.

1 comment:

I'm indebted to Birkdale Focus for the following choice of words:

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